1. Method
- - With the assumption that Numerical Weather Prediction Model predicts the state of current atmosphere correctly.
The Perfect Prog Method makes no attempt to correct for possible NWP(Numerical Weather Prediction) model errors or biases, but takes their forecasts for future atmospheric variables at face value-assuming them to be perfect.
Klein(1959) devised the prediction equation using climate data as follows.
where,
: predicted value of predictand at t=0
: predictor at t=0
2. Procedures of Model using PPM
- Climate Data or Numerically Predicted Data
- Determine independent variables (exclude variables of 0.9 or more
- correlation coefficient among independent variables)
- Process of regression analysis (determine appropriate variables)
- Development of model using PPM(development of model using PPM
- based on monthly or dependant variables.)
3. Multiple Regression Analysis
-Equation of Multiple regression analysis
- y=[x] b
-Normal Equations[x]Ty = [x]T [x] bb= ([x]T[x])-1 [x]Ty¡Ø inverse matrix calculation : using ¡¸Numerical Recipe¡¹routines
